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jbs32's rumours posts with other poster's replies to jbs32's rumours posts

 

06 Jan 2016 20:30:33
Hearing something along the lines of:

Preds:

Seth Jones
Colin Wilson

CBJ:

Ryan Johansen
Scott Hartnell

Seems like a lot from Nashville to me.

jbs32

1.) 06 Jan 2016 22:19:15
swap Jones with Ellis, and then Nashville gives up a pick as well. I don't think they're parting with Josi, Weber or Jones.


2.) 06 Jan 2016 22:39:12
I like it nash needs a #1 center they are strong on defence so seems logical.


3.) 06 Jan 2016 23:35:37
Where did you hear it from? Lol.


4.) 06 Jan 2016 23:38:12
Jones for Johanson done deal.


5.) 07 Jan 2016 03:41:00
Take out the other two and Johansen for Jones should be a done deal.


 

 

24 Feb 2015 13:10:22
What would it take for the bolts to pry James Wisnewski out of Columbus? He's signed for 2 seasons after this one and seems like more the type of player Stevie Y would go for. Reports are Columbus is shopping him ahead of the deadline. Would a deal centered around Connolly and a first work? Add pieces a bit but those as the main ones. Maybe Connolly Sustr 1st 2015 3rd 2016?

jbs32

1.) I see so far it's pretty split. Will someone tell me either why it's unbelievable or give me an idea of what it would take?


2.) 24 Feb 2015 18:33:12
Well sorry Jared, I almost always agree with you, but I really think you'd screw our own team with that.
1. Wisniewski is more of an offensive minded, puck-moving defenseman, not really what we need IMO. I think we need a physical stay at home guy.
2. I think that's a vast overpayment, tbh. Connolly, Sustr, 1st and 3rd? Wow!


3.) I just don't see Sustr/Connolly having opportunity to have a large impact on the team and I'm likely oversold on Wisnewski. But the way the power play has been and the need for a right handed d I think he fits. May be giving up to much.


4.) 25 Feb 2015 11:59:41
PP definitely needs work.
And well, even if they don't have the best opportunities here in Tampa (yet), no need to sell them below value IMO.


 

 

 

jbs32's talk posts with other poster's replies to jbs32's talk posts

 

30 Sep 2016 13:07:07
I just read that for rfa compensation AAV is calculated as total salary/ 5 years. So a 7 year 49 mill offer sheet would be 4 1st round picks. That would be inticing for teams not to match.

jbs32

1.) 30 Sep 2016 15:37:10
so you're saying actual years of the contract don't matter when determining compensation and all that matters is actual money divided by 5?

So, 7 years and 49 mil would actual be 49 mil over 5 years for a charge of just under 10 mil per in terms of compensation.

That just doesn't seem to make any sense.


2.) 30 Sep 2016 19:43:44
just to add another example at the opposite end:

a team could sign a RFA for 1 year at the league max (14 mil or whatever it is) and only have to give up a 2nd round pick because 14 / 5 = 2.8 mil.

It just seems far too easy to circumvent. Maybe I'm misunderstanding what you wrote, though.


3.) 30 Sep 2016 21:11:09
Anything over 5 years is divided by 5 to get the figure for compensation. It's to limit teams giving out longer deals to lower the AAV and therefore lower the compensation. Has no effect on 1-5 year deals they are still the AAV for compensation.


4.) 01 Oct 2016 02:24:52
ah ok, that makes sense then.


 

 

04 May 2016 13:07:49
Anyone else watch the Lightning-Iles game? I think Capuano needs to grow a pair. The Boyle hit was much better/ cleaner than the Hickey hit on Drouin and watching the replay (especially in slow motion) it's obvious Hickey tried to sell it for a penalty. Fans throwing a drink on the celebratory huddle and throwing things on the ice was fairly cringe worthy as well. What's going on in the league now that fans in Philly Detroit and New York have all though that doing stuff like that is ok?

jbs32

1.) 04 May 2016 19:02:33
I missed the Boyle hit, but the hit on Drouin was clean. Head contact was after the fact and resulted from Drouin leaning forward into the hit just before contact. Hickey didn't leave his feet, he even bent his knees to get low and launch Drouin. Enormous hit, but a clean one.


2.) 04 May 2016 19:17:30
I'm not trying to say it's suspension worthy or even illegal. It was just worse than the Boyle hit Iles fans are complaining about. Just glad nobody got hurt but hate it when guys embellish and fans coaches and players act outlandish like that. I hope lightning fans never throw things on the ice.


3.) 04 May 2016 23:20:52
There will always be fans that throw things on the ice or at players. I remember watching Habs and Bruins games were Lucic would have beers and garbage thrown at him in the penalty box or whenever he was ejected. I personally thought it was funny but it doesn't make it right. Basically what I'm saying is this not an easily solved problem and I agree that some fans need to control themselves.


 

 

07 Mar 2016 17:37:23
Good to see Drouin returning to Syracuse. Hopefully he gets some work in and it can help facilitate a deal for him so he can get his career back on track. Can't imagine he will be popular in that locker room though.

jbs32

 

 

18 Jun 2015 13:49:54
OK ya. 4th overall would be way too much I didn't even think of that because of that. Bud, I like JVR. He's a heck of a player. But while Drouin's numbers on the surface look underwhelming his scoring rates where near the top of the league playing with Boyle Brown and Morrow and he still looked uncomfortable playing the nhl game. I think as he gets more accustomed to the game and plays with better players his stats will start to show his rates mean something which is why I would be hesitant to move him. Cap issues with the lightning also make those ELCs important even though JVR has a great contract

jbs32

1.) 18 Jun 2015 23:13:46
I think a trade like JVR and a a mid to late pick plus a solid yet unspectacular prospect for Drouin and Carle could be a good trade. The lightning dump a bad contract in Carle who can be replaced with the defensive depth of the team and a young player that just isn't fitting in with the team while adding JVR which would add some size to the lightnings top 6 and give Stamkos a winger to play with while the leafs add a young talented player for the beginning of there rebuild.


2.) 19 Jun 2015 12:00:32
While I admit that Carle's contract isn't great, I'm still not ready to call him a cap dump. In the right situation on the right team, he's still a very solid 2nd pairing guy. Here's a thing (advanced stats heavily support that): As long as Carle is the "2nd" guy on a pairing (aka not responsible for carrying that pairing, he's very effective. Tht was the case when he was paired with Garrison, Stralman and even Barberio. All worked out fine. Only bad pairing he built was when he was asked to carry the Carle-Sustr pairing (especially in the playoffs). That's the key thing about Carle, IMO.

And, most people here should know, JVR is by far my most favorite leafs player, and I once really liked the idea of having him on TB, BUT here's a thing: since the triplets won't split up anytime soon, he'd play first line with Stamkos (instead of Drouin then). Problem is, JVR is a goal scorer. So is Stamkos. Drouin is more of a set-up guy. And the latter is exactly what Stamkos needs on his line.
You saw it during the playoffs, as long as he played C with Callahan and Killorn on his wings (dont get me wrong, both great players, but neither is an exceptionally great passer or puck carrier), he didn't really produce. That changed when Cooper put a guy that's pretty good at both carrying the puck and setting guys on Stamkos' line: Filppula.
And as jbs said, Drouin's 5on5/60 numbers were very, very good. 32 points in 70 games isn't per se bad, just if you take into account expectations were higher after he went 3rd overall. But doing that in idk maybe 11-13 mins of TOI/game playing alongside guys like Morrow, Boyle and Brown, it actually gets pretty impressive, IMO.

And as jbs said, there's the ELC thing. I don't see TB in as much of a cap problem as others may do (especially not this summer), but 4.25 or whatever JVR makes is quite a bit more than Drouins


3.) 19 Jun 2015 15:43:13
I would never trade jvr straight up for drouin yet! He hasn't proved anything yet! Yes he has unbelievable upside but until he can make a roster and prove that he is a 30 goal scorer and can play consistently in the top 6 why would the leafs give up a monster power forward who's signed to a ridiculously good contract and is just entering the prime of his career! I wouldn't go anywhere near drouin with jvr

Now however I would attempt to make a trade with Tampa for drouin using other pieces that Tampa could use

Don't know what they are because Tampa is a pretty well rounded team


4.) 19 Jun 2015 16:41:07
Lol, that may be a big part why you're not a NHL GM, haha. You got to value the upside. McDavid hasn't proven anything at the NHL level, either. wouldn't you trade JVR for him?
(Not saying Drouin will be as good as McDavid, but it's the same logic)

Outside of JVR (who, as I said, isn't a good fit), only pieces of interest would be 4th overall, Nylander, maybe Rielly.


 

 

04 Feb 2015 18:30:27
Last year players who were traded for packages of or including a first or second round pick are:
Matt Moulson/Cody McCormick
Marion Gaborik
Thomas Vanek
Martin St.Louis
David Rundblad + Mathieu Brisbois
Andy MacDonald
Ryan Miller/Steve Ott

Dmen are valued a bit higher at the deadline then forwards but only guaranteed firsts were in the St.Louis (1 more year under a good contract) Vanek (first trade at start of season) and Miller. Keep that in mind when valuing players for this season's deadline, as well with that this draft is much deeper than last year's.

jbs32

1.) @jbs - what you're saying is true but I also think it's important to remember that the market generally influences trade value. For example, last year there were several goalies in play at the trade deadline. This is going to substantially lower the value of those goalies in a trade.

Pitt has already set a bit of a precedent by paying a 1st for Perron. Not sure how that impacts the rest of the market, but it's likely going to be something teams consider when moving top 6 forwards.


2.) While I agree I'd say Perron having an extra year on his contract plus getting him earlier in the season, hence having him longer, made him much more valuable than if he was a rental dealt at the deadline. I'm just saying that realistically not a ton of players are going to be traded for high picks. There seems to be a little more quality d men available this deadline (yandle franson petry possibly green myers methot) which could drive down prices a bit. I don't see guys like Santorelli or Winnik as top 6 forwards like some others do and I personally don't believe they will receive a second but I'm also not an nhl gm so I don't know what those conversations are like.


3.) I agree about Perron. But no matter how you slice it, Pitt still gave a 1st for a 2nd line winger (which is the precedent).

As for the D market, I agree that there are a lot of guys "available" but how many of those players can be had relatively easily is yet to be determined. In those cases you need to look at each player, relative to what else is out there. For example, you want to add a guy for a cup run (2nd pairing player with offensive upside), but you don't want to give up a ton of assets for him, but you also need someone better than just a depth d-man. That's where the market for d-men gets small.

The apparent asking price for Yandle is enormous. As is Myers. Washington is still in the mix so I doubt Green goes (unless they are blown away). Petry and Methot are solid additions, but I put them in a different category than Franson. Point being, maybe Myers and Yandle will get traded, but if the asking price is too high then teams are going to start looking at the next best thing (which IMO is Franson).

I agree about Winnik not being a top 6 forward, however Santorelli can move up. The big thing with those two is that they are inexpensive. So it's not as if a contending team needs to move salary around to add them. That's huge IMO.

This is all to say, I don't know any more than anyone else. It's all speculation. My point was just to say that the market drives the price and while I am not holding my breath for a 1st for Franson or a 2nd for Santorelli, when it comes to the deadline anything can happen.


 

 

 

jbs32's rumour replies

 

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18 Nov 2017 10:41:49
Actually Tampa ADDS almost 1.5 mill cap in this deal, in 2 years when they need it only Dorsett is gone freeing up less cap than a Callahan buyout, and I don't see the place for either of them in Tampas lineup theyd both be 4th line. Meanwhile they're giving up their top prospect in Foote, a D man who probably needs to move but has had a lot of success this year when they actually play him in Koekkoek and a one of their top 5 prospects in Raddysh or a 1st? To gain 1.5 mill cap? I don't see that as a very good deal.

jbs32

 

 

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16 Nov 2017 22:17:50
My reply didn't get posted. Long story short tampa actually gains salary and gives up way too much.

jbs32

 

 

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27 Oct 2017 13:12:30
Why do people think trading up a player is giving up on them? If you're trading for OEL with Marner as the centerpiece you do it. Marner is playing 4th line. Had a great season last year hitting a sophomore slump. He will be good but i don't think hell be an OEL level player.

jbs32

 

 

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25 Oct 2017 13:57:31
TopShelf and that right there is why counting stats suck. They don't take into account situation. Players who have yet to break out or are held to limited roles because of depth still have value for potential trades and signings of those guys happen every year. Look at Talbot/ Rantaa deals.

jbs32

 

 

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17 Oct 2017 13:23:42
Theres a place for gritty players. But its in the bottom 6. You can find them in the AHL and middle rounds of the draft. I personally don't think grit is worth 4 mill its a mindset and a lot of players can have it. The shift to grit is also one of the things that's weakened Tampa past couple of years. They have Killorn Kunitz Callahan Dumont Paquette and Brown who don't bring much more than grit at the forward position and Gourde whose a pest and whose offense is yet to be seen. Shaw doesn't help them.

jbs32

 

 

 

jbs32's talk replies

 

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I don't think anyone has an issue with players like that being put on LTIR and not counting against the cap. I think most people to take exception to it believe that those contracts should not be tradable so that teams can't buy themselves out of a hole they were stupid enough to put themselves in. Kinda unfair to teams that can't afford to do it because you drove a FA out of their price range then got out of it in a way most teams couldn't. That's the only issue I see with it. Still very shocked that trade went down huge deal for Toronto

jbs32

 

 

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Hasn't toronto retained the maximum number of contracts they can at one time now? For that reason I don't see Kessel or Phaneuf moving because they'd be hard enough to move without keeping salary to begin with it would be almost impossible to fit them to a team under the cap at the deadline without those teams shipping back salary and few teams have a lot of useless salary on players they don't need for their playoff run

jbs32

 

 

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Hahaha 1 year going between bottom 6 and a healthy scratch due to depth and everyone is saying Drouin is a bust and should be moved for scraps. Kid will be fine. We he gets more than 15 min he's a ppg player this season.

jbs32

 

 

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The core is still young enough. Maybe they deal Chara to get younger but they'd have a hard time replacing him. I feel they might just do some minor retooling and hope to stay healthy next year

jbs32

 

 

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I understand. I still think the effect is a little overstated though. Some top line guys you can pass them the puck and they'll do all the work and you get an assist. Guys Connolly plays with. if he doesn't score nobody does. Also allows the d to focus on him to take it away. Not saying he some he's some all star it's just a stat I like to look at and I do believe there is value in it but you have to take out outliers and group better than just throwing everyone in there because it will be skewed. That being said once you limit it to players this season who've played 750+ min this season it's all top 4 defense and top line forwards. Rick Nash Nikita Kucherov and Tyler Johnson don't even qualify. Top 5 are Tarasenko Getzlaf Seguin Patches Crosby so I'd say while they may still be skewed a bit it's much better for comparing top line players. Kessel still comes in at 38. Again he's not a bad player but if he was the offensive elite people say he is he wouldn't be that far down playing with guys like Bozak and JVR. At the very least he would do it himself and find ways to score. I realize he is in a massive slump right now but that's another reason I don't consider him elite. Elite players don't go through these kinds of slumps they're more consistent than that

jbs32